I believe that Big Brother has won because that would prove the point Orwell was trying to make when writing this book. If the party, which was representative of totalitarian rule and oppression, didn't win through in the end, the book would not send as clear a message as Orwell wanted to communicate. It would just be another phase of humanity.
I suppose if the state were to be brought down in would be from the way that the party gradually decreases rations, which could eventually provoke a rebellion. Even this is unlikely though because the party alters history so no one knows the rations lower dramatically.
As soon as he started loving Big Brother, it doesn't especially matter when he actually dies I think. The instant he gave into the party and its demands, his old self, the person that was a rebel and a freethinker, "died" and he became a puppet of the party like most of the population. Whether he lived on or was shot the next day doesn't make much of a difference seeing as how his ideas about resistence, life, and all other things not relating to the party were crushed.
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